Florida International vs. Toledo -6.5 (o/u 68.5)
On the season, Florida International used an explosive offense (421.8 YPG) to finish 8-4 and 3rd in the East Division of Conference USA. The undeniable star of the offensive unit was QB James Morgan, who completed almost 66% of his passes for 2,764 yards and 26 TDs against only 7 interceptions. At 250.7 YPG, the Golden Panthers ranked #87 in the NCAA for passing yards. While the defense was giving up 24.7 YPG, the offense was churning out almost 35 PPG for the second-best margin of victory average in the conference.
Toledo (7-5) enters this game with one of the better offenses in the country. With a scoring average of 41.1 PPG, it’s surprising they were able to finish better than mid-pack in a competitive MAC conference. It’s noteworthy the Rockets scored 45 or more points in all seven wins while failing to score more than 27 in all five losses. Quarterbacking duties were shared by Eli Peters and Mitchell Guadagni, who combined for 2, 626 yards passing with 28 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. Bryant Koback (875 yards, 13 touchdowns) led a rusking attack that was ranked #59 in the nation. On defense, the Rockets gave up a lot of yards through the air, which translated into 30 PPG.
Prediction: Both of these teams are capable of putting up big numbers on offense. Florida International throws the ball well, and Toledo has trouble defending the pass. Not expecting much defense in this one. Play the over 68.5.