Oklahoma vs Alabama -14 (o/u 76.5)
Ho-Hum. Just another college football playoff game featuring #4 Oklahoma and #1 Alabama. The only blemish on Oklahoma’s 12-1 season was a disappointing loss to long-time Rival Texas 48-45 in a big shootout at home. Fortunately, the Sooners got revenge in the Big 12 conference championship game by taking Texas to the woodshed 39-27. Oklahoma was a juggernaut on offense, finishing 3rd in the country with over 577 YPG. The undeniable leader on offense was Heisman Trophy winner QB Kyler Murray, who completed 70.9% of his passes for 4,053 yards and 40 TDs with only 7 interceptions. He also added 11 TDs running the ball. His primary target was Marquise Brown (75/1,318/10). With all the focus on offense, the defense proved to be quite porous.
The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide enter this game undefeated (13-0) and largely untested aside from a 35-28 win over #5 Georgia in the SEC title game. Bama did it all. The offense racked up more than 527 YPG to rank 13th in the nation. QB and Heisman runner-up Tua Tagovailoa led the way with 3,353 yards passing and 37 TDs with only 4 INTs. Even backup QB Jalen Hurts completed almost 75% of his passes for 755 yards and 8 TDs. The supporting cast on offense included 6 players scoring at least 7 TDs. On defense, Alabama dominated opponents, ranking 10th in the nation for total defense at just over 295 YPG. Of interest would be a passing defense than only allowed 178.4 YPG.
Prediction: The gut says Alabama should win this game pretty easily because of Oklahoma’s deficiencies on defense. That said, two touchdowns against the 3rd best offense in the NCAA is difficult to swallow. There is another option. Oklahoma will not be able to stop the Bama offense. If Oklahoma scores in the 30s, this game is going over, even this big number. Play over 76.5